Gerrymandering Eve: The Closing Arguments
Ah yes — the Monday before redistricting. Most of the yelling and spending is over. The good news is that the “no” campaign will be the bipartisan conscience o...
Ah yes — the Monday before redistricting.
Most of the yelling and spending is over. The good news is that the “no” campaign will be the bipartisan conscience of Virginia against a hyper partisan progressive monolith who according to the Washington Post has polarized Richmond in a way no other modern party has ever done.
Will Virginians reward partisanship with a 10-1 advantage with candidates representing Fairfax, Richmond, and Norfolk? Or will our non-partisan redistricting effort — the solution to this asbestos filled miasma — prevail against the spirit of the times?
For Virginia Republicans, it all centers on how many of our friends and family we motivate tomorrow. Social media is a good start, but phone calls and conversations are far superior.
The alternative isn’t democracy but the victory of demagoguery and a return to the political wilderness in seats so unfair and polarizing they could only be dreamt up in places like Chicago or New England.
Consider The Lobster District: Unfairness As Policy
If there is a closing argument to the entire thing, let it be the congressional maps of New England, where 40% of New Englanders vote Republican and not a single Republican is represented in the cradle of the American Revolution.
If the who-started-it argument is your hook, then feel free to remind friends that it was Democratic-run New York who started the redistricting fracas.
Finally, if it is the “we have to be unfair in Virginia to be fair to America” line, then remind folks that Virginia’s non-partisan redistricting is the antidote to unfair lines — not a problem that needs to be fixed.
Whether or not the redistricting amendment succeeds or fails, the consequences are rather stark. Should redistricting fail, it will mostly be a referendum on Spanberger — not Trump — and will give new courage to Republicans in at least four congressional races (VA-01, VA-02, VA-05, and VA-07). Should redistricting succeed, State Senator Louise Lucas (D-Portsmouth) and her promise of 10-effing-1 will have been purchased at the cost of $65 million.
In the grand scheme of things for 2030 and the growth of Republican states vs. Democratic states, such ill-gotten gains may very well become a wash. Yet for Virginia Republicans it means that the 2029 contests will be our very last gasp as that particular governor will be signing the new lines proposed by an ostensibly Democratic-controlled General Assembly. Even then — and despite the heavy-handed veto pen Spanberger is wielding today, the power of the Governor’s Mansion to stem the tide will be difficult until Republicans recapture one or both chambers.
The mission isn’t impossible, but it is uphill.
By The Numbers: Nonpartisan Redistricting Running Uphill Tomorrow
Now polling shows that the redistricting amendment is in single digit territory, with YES outside of the margin of error against NO. Yet there are some telltales as to how Virginia might vote tomorrow, starting with Google Trends:
As you can see, Virginians are searching out “yes” more than they are searching out “no” — not a closer, but a telltale. Once you get into the prediction markets, the game changes significantly:
Bear in mind, if the redistricting amendment passes 51-49, that is a 100% win to a speculator. Kalshi isn’t much better:
Now for the coup de grace, we have the 2026 Congressional Generic Ballot, which is the gold standard baseline for performance:
For reference, the national generic ballot was D+3.6 in November 2025, and while former Attorney General Jason Miyares kept it to within 6-ish points, the top of the ticket managed to lose to Spanberger by 15.36% — outperforming the national generic ballot by 12 points.
At present, the generic ballot is D+5.6 — which means if you tack on the three points that Virginia leans a bit further to the left than the national ballot? We are looking at about 9 points of separation in a generic environment.
Now the upshot here is that Spanberger has forfeited about 10 points favorability since her November triumph, with approval ratings at 47% and the most galvanized and polarized gubernatorial start in modern history. That has to count for something, especially if one views the gerrymandering referendum as a proxy referendum on some of the truly crazy bills the General Assembly either entertained or passed this session — all of which are coming back next year.
Which is why the WaPo/GMU Schar poll rattled the cages just a bit:
So again — outside the margin of error, but Virginians for Fair Maps et al. is most certainly within striking distance.
Winners and Losers? Some Preliminaries (and Work to Do)
Wednesday will give us a better sense of winners and losers, but we can most likely sort out some early winners and some early losers regardless of the outcome:
WINNERS
Virginians for Fair Maps: Former AG Miyares could have packed it in, but instead chose to get back in the saddle and campaign. Again. For those who understand how exhausting campaigning is, to tack on another four months of hard slog is why we love the guy. (NB: I am clearly biased here and don’t particularly care.)
Brian Cannon: It is no secret where Brian’s political leanings are, but should Virginia’s non-partisan redistricting survive, it will be because Cannon and his fellow Democrats really were interested in fairness and decency in politics. Sure we will fight it out in November — but in fair lines.
Virginia’s Conservative Movement: Let’s be clear about this — no one in Washington lifted a finger to help Virginians push back against this amendment unless they were shamed into doing so. Virginia’s conservatives relied upon one another for signs and volunteers. Here’s hoping that the new movement sticks together. At least we know who our friends and fair-weather patriots are.
LOSERS:
Governor Abigail Spanberger: So much for her presidential or senatorial ambitions. They’re gone — and whomever in the Democratic circles chose to make her the face of the gerrymandering campaign is a Machiavellian bastard-and-a-half. One suspects her team knows this, but whether the centrist emerges and begins to truly work with Republicans or whether the Governor’s Mansion becomes as satrapy to Senate Democrats remains to be seen.
Dan Helmer: Because Dan Helmer will always be a loser and should bow out of politics — right now.
Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Prince William): Should redistricting fail, Vindman will now have to go back to VA-07 why he wanted to fire his constituents. Should redistricting succeed, VA-01 is open to a Democratic challenger who could easily knock off a lazy campaigner. Welcome to the risk of so-called “safe” seats.
Safe to say that there are other losers involved as well. There are a host of johnny-come-latelys involved who could have done something and chose to do nothing. Then there are others who jumped in late.
Quo Vadis vs. Cui Bono?
More than this, there is a troubling trend among volunteers who are simply refusing to do so — not because the fire isn’t lit, but rather because they know they are held in contempt by the professional consultant class who get their 15% and laugh at the passion of the mob, only so that the volunteers — who work their guts out for candidates leading a cause — watch as the politicians do the exact opposite and the consultants laugh at their enthusiasm and naivete.
Both parties are infected with this disease, to be sure, but Virginia Republicans are now going to have to make hard choices about what sort of movement we want in a post-Trump environment and which consultants — who are often times just as important as the candidate — are going to be calling the shots both during and after the campaign.
Either way, most Republicans are a bit sick and tired of being treated like sheep. Which means all of us are going to have to roll up our sleeves and do it the old-fashioned way — find your precinct, get involved, volunteer your time, to hell with titles, and if the important people aren’t giving you the gear you need? Rat them out and bypass them. Campaigns aren’t run in a swivel chair and by clipboard.
Don’t worry — the leaders we need are all around us. True, there are grifters out there, but we know what they sound like and where they aren’t when the going gets rough.
Just ask them where they were during the gerrymandering referendum in 2026 and you’ll learn all you need to know. If the answer is California? Hard pass.
THE FINAL WORD: GET OUT THE VOTE
There isn’t a single observer of the Virginia gerrymandering contest who doesn’t implicitly understand that what Virginia Democrats are doing is unfair and divisive. Their argument is simple — TRUMP.
While opponents to the gerrymandering referendum have been practically abandoned by the powers-that-be in Washington — and aren’t we all getting a bit tired of that? — we have had a few heroes man the barricades. Despite the $65 million thrown at us, there’s still surprising strength left in the honorable center who still believes in fair play and good process.
In short, Virginians have been put in the best position possible to refuse the gerrymandering referendum on Tuesday.
Victory can still be ours — that is, if we want it.
SHAUN KENNEY is senior editor for The Republican Standard.
Originally published by Shaun Kenney at The Republican Standard Substack. Republished here at Virginia Liberty.
